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At , Magnum Moon provides great value because he is undefeated and very capable of winning the race. The early qualification favorite has seen his popularity fade as we get closer to the Kentucky Derby.
Mail will not be published required. Home About Us Online Racebooks. Kentucky Derby Online Betting Updated Kentucky Derby Predictions 1. Mendelssohn Even though the voters in the media poll dropped him to number five, Mendelssohn is considered one of the top contenders in the Kentucky Derby. Audible Despite winning four of his five starts, Audible has been unable to generate the type of interest Justify and Mendelssohn have garnered through the qualification process.
Magnum Moon Magnum Moon moved up the contenders list after his win at the Arkansas Derby, but he was leapfrogged by the other horses a couple of weeks later. May 1, by Big Boss Bas: Leave a Reply Click here to cancel reply.
Note that the information above is for any straight bet win, place or show. Calling out and betting exotics is somewhat different and we'll discuss that when we cover this type of wager. Kentucky Derby bets are usually divided into two categories—straight bets and exotic bets. Straight bets are the best place to start your betting career but you'll quickly graduate into exotic bets.
As the name implies, straight bets involve wagers on a single horse in a single race to either win or finish near the front of the field. Exotic bets involve either multiple horses in a single race or one or more horses in multiple races. The only other wager was the 'daily double' in which bettors would pick the winners of the first two races on the card. A 'win' bet is as simple as it gets in Kentucky Derby.
You're placing a bet at a horse to win at a given set of odds. If the horse you bet on wins, you cash your ticket. If he doesn't, you don't. That's all there is to it. As far as placing a win bet goes, the example we used above is appropriate here:. In the 'real world' this would be minus 'takeout' and 'breakage' but for the purpose of explaining these bets we'll pretend that these assessments don't exist. In the 'real world' the payout odds would be figured by taking the total amount wagered on all horses 'to win' known as the 'win pool' and subtracting the takeout.
That amount is then divided by the amount wagered on each horse to determine actual payouts. It's important to remember that the Kentucky Derby betting odds do not represent the chances of a specific interest winning a race. Instead, the odds are indicative of a horse's payout ratio for a specific bet which is a function of the financial support they're receiving from the betting marketplace.
The fundamental challenge of handicapping is to find situations where a horse's chance of winning is greater than the betting odds represent. This is called an 'overlay' and is the goal of every successful handicapper. The opposite of an 'overlay' is an 'underlay'--an underlay occurs when the betting odds represent that a horse has a greater chance of winning than he actually does. How do you figure out the horse's chance of winning? That's the hard part.
These concepts apply to sports betting moneylines and point spreads as well. Another point worth mentioning here—North American tracks quote odds as fractions but tracks in the rest of the world usually quote them as decimals. The good news is that if you're betting international races online you'll be offered the option of how you want odds displayed.
Just select 'fractional' odds and you won't have to worry about decimals. In some cases, the betting odds on a favorite horse at Kentucky Derby will be less than even money.
The terminology for this is 'odds on favorite'. So our profit on this bet is. When you factor in the takeout and breakage you're either making a minuscule profit of a few cents or even losing money. We'll group these two bets together since they're very similar and the underlying math is the same for both.
A Kentucky Derby 'place' bet is a bet that a horse will finish either first or second. A 'show' bet is a bet that a horse will finish first, second or third. At the track, you'd call these bets as follows:. American Pharoah won the race and cashed all three straight bet types win, place and show.
Firing Line finished second and cashed place and show bets. In most cases, the price 'to show' will be less than the price 'to win'. The price to 'place' will be less than both other bets. There are exceptions and the Kentucky Derby was one of them. American Pharoah went off as a favorite while Firing Line was The disparity between these odds is why Firing Line paid more 'to show' than American Pharoah did 'to win'.
Keep in mind that these payouts are figured based on the amount of money in the 'pool' for each bet minus the track takeout. Takeout at Churchill Downs is First, the good news—you'll likely never have to calculate place and show payouts manually.
The race track, race book or online betting site will do the math for you. Even when you're handicapping you won't have to figure it out yourself. There's a wide variety of applications for computers, tablets, phones, etc. That being said, it's still important to understand the math behind the payouts. Note that the formula below won't produce an exact payout but it does calculate a good estimate of your return on a successful 'place' bet:.
Start by taking the total amount of money bet to place the 'place pool'. Then subtract the takeout eg: Then subtract the amount of money wagered on your horse plus the highest amount of place money bet on another horse.
This will give you the place pool profit:. You'll then divide the place pool profit by two since there are two horses that are cashing 'place' bets. Figuring a 'show' payout is done exactly the same way with two minor adjustments. In the second step, you'll subtract the amount of money wagered on your horse and the two horses with the highest amount of 'show' money bets to determine the 'show pool profit'.
In the third step, you'll divide the 'show' pool profit by three for the three horses cashing a ticket. There are a number of ways to use these calculations for handicapping. In fact, the Kentucky Derby is a perfect example of one—you'd might have determined that betting American Pharoah to 'place' at 5. As noted at the outset of this section you're well advised to use the many technological resources to figure out potential payouts but it's crucial to understand what it all means.
At the outset of our discussion on horse race betting we observed that 'at it's essence the sport has changed little since the 19th century'. Exotic bets are the exception to that rule and are a relatively modern addition to the horse racing menu. A horse player in the 's would have had only one choice for an exotic wager—the daily double, where he would try and select the winner of the first two races on the card. This was considered a 'novelty bet' and the province of amateurs and recreational players.
That has changed dramatically to the point that today exotic wagers comprise around 70 to 75 percent of the horse racing handle. One reason for the explosion in exotic wager options is competition. Throughout most of the 20th century, there were few gambling options to challenge the dominance of horse racing. Florida had a few jai alai frontons, Nevada had casino gambling and there were plenty of illegal bookmakers throughout the country.
But as far as legal betting options were concerned, horse racing was just about the only game in town. When the legal gambling market started to expand players not only had options for where to spend their betting dollars but a variety of new wagering opportunities that offered big payouts for small investments.
They flocked to sports betting parlay cards, networked progressive slot jackpots like Megabucks and big dollar, multi-state lotteries such as Powerball. These types of games were popular with both players and 'the house'--they typically offered game operators a higher 'hold' percentage overall even with the payout of a huge jackpot.
The popularity and high hold percentage of big jackpot bets was not lost on horse racing who had a perfect product for this type of wagering. There was also plenty of precedent as what would become known as 'exotic wagers' had long been popular internationally.
As the years progressed, the sport would continue to add new bet types with longer odds and bigger payouts to keep up with the massive expansion of other forms of gambling in the North American market. At this point, you're probably thinking that exotic Kentucky Derby bets sound a lot like sports betting parlays. This is a very good comparison—in both cases, a player must successfully pick more than one outcome to cash a ticket. The more correct outcomes offered in a specific bet means longer odds but a larger payout for the successful handicapper.
One substantial difference between Derby exotic bets and sports parlays: That's not the case in horse racing where many high level handicappers specialize in trying to find value in exotic bets.
A vertical bet eg: A horizontal bet requires the player to pick the winner of a set number of races. The daily double is a horizontal bet but bets involving as many as six or seven races are common today. Occasionally, you'll come across one of the new forms of exotic wagering that are essentially a hybrid of the two and require a player to select multiple horses in multiple races. One more thing worth mentioning—the terms we'll use to discuss the bet types below are the ones most commonly used in the United States.
Many of these bets are known by other names in various parts of the world. For example, in certain parts of Canada what is known as an 'exacta' to American bettors is known as an 'exactor'. If you're betting races at an international track it's a good idea to learn the local betting lexicon as there might be differences from what you're used to.
The exacta is the most popular multi-horse vertical wager and requires the bettor to pick the first and second place finisher of a race in correct order. Here's how you'd call this bet specifying the horse numbers in the correct order of finish:.
The expert strategy for exactas and other types of exotic bets is to make multiple wagers to 'cover' different results. Using the example above, lets say you like horses 8, 3 and 6 but are unsure about their order of finish. One strategy in this situation is to bet every permutation of all three horses in the win and place spot. This is called a box and the term is common to all exotic wagers.
This is why it's crucial to estimate the payouts before playing your bet on Kentucky Derby—you don't want to spend more on your bet than you can possibly win which is possible if you include a big enough favorite. You'll find a wide selection of calculators, computer software and smartphone apps to help calculate exotic bet ticket prices and payouts. Another common exotic strategy is the wheel. In an exacta wheel the player will have one horse that he likes to win the race.
He then pairs that horse with every other horse in the field in second place to cover every exacta scenario. This bet would be called:. A couple of other horse racing terms that you'll hear a lot at Kentucky Derby are: You can also bet what is known as a part wheel.
This is essentially the same thing as described above, only you're not using every horse to cover every scenario:. The quinella is similar to the exacta in that the player must select the first and second place finisher in a race.
The difference is that the order of finish doesn't matter. You won't find quinella betting at every race track. This is due to a conventional wisdom among horse track executives that quinella pools come at the expense of exacta pools.
At least this is their rationalization—a more cynical possibility is that they simply don't want to offer what is considered a very player friendly bet. If you have the option to bet both the exacta and quinella you'll have to determine which bet is more advantageous. For example, a quinella bet would likely be the best choice if you're betting two horses with similar, fairly short odds at the Derby. The exacta and more specifically an exacta box would be a preferable option if one of the horses you like is a good sized long shot.
A trifecta is identical to the exacta only it involves picking the top three finishers in correct order. You can see how quickly your bet cost can go up with every horse you try to 'cover'. In either scenario, the size of the field will determine how many combinations you bet.
A 7 horse field would produce 30 combinations, an 8 horse field would produce 52 combinations and so on. You can also do a trifecta part wheel keying one or more horses. Let's say you like horses 8 and 6 to finish first or second. You like the 1, 4 and 5 to finish third. You'd call this bet as follows:. Given how quickly your ticket costs can add up, this bet requires a good sized bankroll and nerves of steel since it's not unusual to lose a dozen or so bets in a row before hitting a winner.
A superfecta would be called as follows:. You can key, wheel or box horses as above but be careful—with four spots every horse you add to the mix causes your bet price in increase significantly. A recent addition to the Kentucky Derby betting boards was first introduced at Santa Anita. The Super High Five requires the player to select the top five finishers in correct order. The conventions of the bet are the same as above, only with five horses.
The second type of exotic wager is the horizontal bet which requires the bettor to pick the winner of multiple races. We'll group these together as they share common characteristics with the only difference being the number of races involved. The Daily Double was the original exotic wager and remains very popular today.
Statistically, it's one of the best bets at the race track. Historically, the Daily Double involved the first two races of the day. Today, some tracks and racebooks offer a 'rolling daily double' which offers the bet on every race on the card. You'll sometimes hear this bet shortened to 'Double' and it's called like this:. In this example we're betting horses 8 and 6 to win the first race and 1 and 4 to win the second race.
There was also a bet doubling the result of Friday's Kentucky Oaks race for three year old fillies with the Kentucky Derby. The Pick 3 requires the bettor to pick the winner of three consecutive races. Many racetracks now offer 'rolling pick threes' meaning that you can wager on races , , and so forth.
Here's how the bet is called:. In this example you're betting on all combinations of 7 and 9 to win the first race, 1 and 4 to win the second and 4 and 6 to win the third. The Pick 4 requires the bettor to pick the winner of four consecutive races. Unlike the daily double and pick 3 most tracks only offer one pick four per day. In this example you're betting on all combinations of 7 and 9 to win the first race, singling 2 in the second race, betting 1 and 4 to win the third and 4 and 6 to win the fourth.
If you play a lot of exotic wagers it's a good idea to download one of the many specialized bet calculator apps for Apple and Android smart phones. The Pick 5 requires the bettor to pick the winner of five consecutive races. The Pick 5 has more in common with the Pick 4 than the Pick 6 as we'll see momentarily. In this example you're betting on all combinations of 7 and 9 to win the first race, singling 2 in the second race, betting 1 and 4 to win the third.
You can see how quickly the cost of a bet can increase just by adding one more horse. The Kentucky Derby had a. A Pick 6 winner can produce a huge payout—not surprising, since picking the winner of six straight races is exceedingly difficult.
Here's how the bet would be called:. There are a couple of differences between the Pick 6 and the previous horizontal exotics we've discussed. The first is the 'carryover'. If a Pick 6 bet is not hit on one day of racing the prize pool is rolled over to the next day providing an even bigger pot.
Additionally, this bet has a 'consolation prize' for hitting five of six.
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