How to Create Football Betting Systems
All of these examples are cases where a team may "seem" more motivated or desperate to win. This isn't a guarantee that they will win, but it often will show up in their on-field effort. The bye week not only provides NFL teams with a chance to rest and an extra week to prepare, but it also provides bettors with possible winning opportunities.
The following is a breakdown of how well teams did coming off their bye week over the last 5 years. These records are from the to regular seasons only, as they don't include playoff byes:. Now, if you know football and you really should , then you know that Andy Reid has a career record following a bye week.
Although his current team, the Kansas City Chiefs, only have a record following the bye week under his leadership, Reid is always worth a look due to his overall success. Additionally, teams like the Patriots are worthy of a look because of how good they are each year, despite an unimpressive bye week record over the last 5 seasons. All teams with losing records should be avoided. However, the following teams might make for a great opportunity to bet against them after they come out of their bye:.
For some betting experts and professional handicappers, they spend a lot of time paying attention to teams following a short week. A short week is typically when a team plays on a Monday night, then turns around and plays the subsequent Sunday 6 days later. The following is a breakdown of each team's record after they played on a short week from through the regular season:.
Since , teams that played on Monday night and then turned around and played on the following Sunday have combined to go A further breakdown of the data above shows that 15 teams have losing records and 4 more are even.
That's 19 total teams without winning records. The following 6 teams don't have a win and would be candidates to bet against on a short week:. In addition to the above losing teams, there are 7 teams with only 1 win.
That's 13 total teams with 1 win or less, or roughly 40 percent of the league. On the other side of the spectrum, there are a handful of teams that seem to thrive on a short week:. After pouring through the data, it's easy to see why this system is a popular one. The majority of teams just don't play well on short weeks. Not only are there bye weeks for teams to rest and prepare, but there are also extended weeks.
These weeks are when a team plays on a Thursday night, and then doesn't play again for at least another 10 days. The following is a breakdown of team records from through the season:.
One would think that teams would have an advantage with a few extra days of rest, but that's not the case. The teams that played on Thursday nights went on to have a record in their next game. Furthermore, the following 4 teams are winless during that span:. In addition to those 4 teams, 11 more teams have losing records, and another 3 teams have even records.
Of the teams who seem to make the most out of the extended break, the Dallas Cowboys and Pittsburgh Steelers are undefeated.
The following teams also appeared to have mastered the extended break:. Just like with bye weeks and short weeks, there are teams to keep an eye on and teams to bet against.
For many years now, NFL fans and pundits have belabored how west coast teams are at a disadvantage when having to travel to the Eastern Time Zone for early games. Think about it; these west coast teams have to travel a far distance, deal with jet lag, get prepared before their game, and have to play at a Sunday time that they're not accustomed too. For further analysis, let's take a look at the true west coast teams and how they fared traveling to the Eastern Time Zone over the last 6 years:.
Over the last 6 years, these teams have combined for a regular season record when traveling to the Eastern Time Zone. Keep in mind that the Rams went back to Los Angeles in , and these records include late games, not just the early ones. Also, you need to factor in that the Seahawks have been one of the best teams over this span and that the Rams had a great season. To further hammer home the point of this disadvantage, the 49ers, Chargers, and Cardinals have proposed a change during the offseason to limit the number of away games played at an earlier time for west coast teams.
Where there's smoke, there's fire. And this system can really heat up if you find the right value. Until , teams would be required to take their bye week following the London game. However, in , the Colts requested to play the following week so that they could have their bye week later in the season.
Now, teams have the option of a bye week after London or at a different point in the season. Of the notable information coming out of crunching the London NFL data, teams that won in London have gone on to post a record of for the remainder of the season.
Teams that lost in London would go on to post a record of throughout the remainder of the season. These wins and losses are based on through regular season. Further analysis shows that in , the winning London teams would go for the rest of the year, while the losing London teams would go This is a system that's definitely worth keeping your eye on heading into the season, especially since the NFL is hoping to one day put a team in London.
Perhaps the most popular betting system for casual to intermediate bettors is wagering on the home team. Despite its popularity, this system does have some merit. For the most part, teams protect their turf and win at home. The one thing you have to keep in mind is that the spread and moneylines help to level the betting action on home teams. With that said, check out the following breakdown of each team's home record over the last 3 seasons:. Only 8 teams have losing records at home over the last 3 years.
If you subtract the teams that are even, you still have 20 teams with winning records. Of those 20, there are a handful of teams that are virtually a lock to win at home:. If you notice, these 7 teams are annual contenders for the playoffs. In fact, three of these teams have been to the Super Bowl during this span: Carolina, New England, and Philadelphia. But despite the variety that's available, some bettors choose to simply stick with major conferences such as Big Ten or Pac Ten basketball.
And it's not hard to understand why either because big-time conferences like these are always televised by major networks like ESPN and CBS. Thanks to all of the TV coverage, it's pretty easy for you to stay up on large conference basketball betting. However, this doesn't mean that you should only focus on the bigger leagues. In fact, you might even find more success by concentrating on smaller Division I schools, and we'll explain why below.
As many bettors know, the goal of oddsmaking is to create balanced action on both sides of a line. That said, it's important for bookmakers to watch plenty of basketball so they know what the public will be thinking. And seeing as how most NCAA basketball betting occurs within the major conference ranks, oddsmakers focus the majority of their attention here.
Assuming you stick with ACC basketball betting - or a similar big conference - you're going to be seeing a lot of accurate lines in terms of the public. Many methods for condensing the number of available bets exist — some start by cutting out any game in which they have no knowledge or interest.
Others start by cutting out all favored teams on the road — road favorites are notoriously bad wagers in college sports. Because sportsbooks offer different odds, and because these point spreads and other odds references move around plenty during the week before the game, it is important to work an understanding of how any why these numbers move into any NCAA football strategy. Why do these numbers move?
A large number of different factors are involved; everything from player injuries, action from people in the betting market, and even changes to front-office staff or player rumors can affect the line. The way a line move is just one more data point for bettors to work off of, and it also acts as an influence on how and when bettors act on a hunch.
For example, bettors interested in an underdog may be wise to wait a few days to get the best price point. Since bookmakers want a balance of wagers on either side of a contest, bets on underdogs may come with better terms as the week progresses.
There is nothing wrong with placing a wager on a college football game without any prior knowledge — casual bets are fun, and not everyone has time to develop a betting strategy and research an entire league. Placing advantageous bets on college football teams requires work. Thankfully, the games occur about a week apart, granting bettors additional time to collect and analyze data.
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