The goal of statistical match prediction is to outperform the predictions of bookmakers [ citation needed ] [ dubious — discuss ] , who use them to set odds on the outcome of football matches.
The most widely used statistical approach to prediction is ranking. Football ranking systems assign a rank to each team based on their past game results, so that the highest rank is assigned to the strongest team. Another approach to football prediction is known as rating systems.
While ranking refers only to team order, rating systems assign to each team a continuously scaled strength indicator. Moreover, rating can be assigned not only to a team but to its attacking and defensive strengths, home field advantage or even to the skills of each team player according to Stern .
Publications about statistical models for football predictions started appearing from the 90s, but the first model was proposed much earlier by Moroney,  who published his first statistical analysis of soccer match results in According to his analysis, both Poisson distribution and negative binomial distribution provided an adequate fit to results of football games.
The series of ball passing between players during football matches was successfully analyzed using negative binomial distribution by Reep and Benjamin  in They improved this method in , and in Hill  indicated that soccer game results are to some degree predictable and not simply a matter of chance.
The first model predicting outcomes of football matches between teams with different skills was proposed by Michael Maher  in According to his model, the goals, which the opponents score during the game, are drawn from the Poisson distribution.
The model parameters are defined by the difference between attacking and defensive skills, adjusted by the home field advantage factor. The methods for modeling the home field advantage factor were summarized in an article by Caurneya and Carron  in Time-dependency of team strengths was analyzed by Knorr-Held  in He used recursive Bayesian estimation to rate football teams: All the prediction methods can be categorized according to tournament type, time-dependence and regression algorithm.
Football prediction methods vary between Round-robin tournament and Knockout competition. The methods for Knockout competition are summarized in an article by Diego Kuonen. The table below summarizes the methods related to Round-robin tournament. This method intends to assign to each team in the tournament a continuously scaled rating value, so that the strongest team will have the highest rating.
The method is based on the assumption that the rating assigned to the rival teams is proportional to the outcome of each match. Assume that the teams A, B, C and D are playing in a tournament and the match outcomes are as follows:. The same assumption can be made for all the matches in the tournament:. Entries of the selection matrix can be either 1, 0 or -1, with 1 corresponding to home teams and -1 to away teams:.
If not, one can use the Moore—Penrose pseudoinverse to get:. Thus, the joint probability of the home team scoring x goals and the away team scoring y goals is a product of the two independent probabilities:. Improvements for this model were suggested by Mark Dixon statistician and Stuart Coles. Unlike the Poisson model that fits the distribution of scores, the Skellam model fits the difference between home and away scores. On the one hand, statistical models require a large number of observations to make an accurate estimation of its parameters.
Our algorithm is based on many factors like head to head results, last game results, home and away standings and we show you the calculated prediction for the matches that will start today. To be a good soccer predictor it is very important to find out the probability of each outcome result.
And to calculate the best outcome pick it is very important to include the probabilities, odds and the expected value in every prediction calculation. To make your live easier we have develop a strong soccer prediction engine that is saving a lot of time for you in case you would search the best prediction by yourself. Want to bet on the best bookmaker with great odds? Want to bet on the best betting exchange? Corinthians - Sport Recife. Cerro Porteno - Deportivo Capiata.
Once Caldas - Atletico Junior. Ural - FC Rostov. Honka - PS Kemi. Petrojet - El Dakhleya. Anorthosis - AEL Limassol. Gomel - FK Gorodeya. Aris Thessaloniki FC - Levadiakos.
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