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My own theory is that it comes down mostly to the wrestling background of american fighters, though I am hardly in any position to claim an expert opinion.
Noticed that for some of the rules the sample sizes are very small some are less than fights — I would think that would affect the accuracy of the rules. Definitely — more fights the better. Some of those rules lack a star which means they are not statistically significant. Can you run the history of fighters winning if they are favored ? One note you should make is that of the wins by fighters 32 or older, 11 were by Anderson Silva turned 32 on April 14, And in gambling, every few points helps.
Thanks for the kinds! Yes it would be very interesting to see the stats based on the number of unique fighters versus number fights as it is right now which will count the same fighter multiple times.
Betting on UFC Fights? Some Stats to Help You Win. Your work is really amzing. I will also try to read all your other posts. Some topics of the statistic like AUC or the Random Forrest Calssifier really motivated me to do some research about statistic.
Statistic is also the topic i got im Math right now. Sabermetrics — have you read Moneyball? I think you would appreciate that book based on the theme above. A couple of years ago I did the same thing with Sherdog, trained a neural network to make predictions and used them to bet on the fights. Could you say a little about how you achieved the crawl?
Did you custom-build a crawler or use some off-the-shelf software? And did you search all possible fighter numbers or event numbers by generating the urls and sending off an HTTP request or is there a more sophisticated way of doing it? How well did your model perform? Also, if you crawl just UFC fights, it should finish much faster.
My strategy was to compare the odds as generated by the model with the implied odds coming from the initial lines offered by the bookies, and to compare both of these to the actual outcome of the match.
The impediment to this approach was that bookies build a margin in their odds: This makes determining the underlying odds as set by the bookies difficult. To outperform the odds makers in the long run one has to "out-predict" them by at least the unknown margins they place on their calculated odds.
This gave me an interval over which my model performed well. Typically this implied that I could bet on about 1 in every 3 fights and expect a long run profit. I used a strategy of re-investing my pot each UFC, spreading it between as many matches as fell within my confidence interval.
What killed the project in the end was the relative infrequency of the events compared with the low rate of return and the effort involved in re-crawling every month. Even if he hurts Craig, he may not be overly anxious to follow to the ground and risk getting caught himself.
That could prolong this bout a bit, although a decision is still a longshot. Justin Willis vs. I'm not sure anyone knows what to expect from this fight, and the line hasn't moved since opening. I think we get a bit of a grind, as only one of Mulheron's last eight fights has ended in the opening round, and only two of Willis' five fights have ended in the first.
That makes the Over 1. Danny Roberts vs. Nash made a better account of himself than I expected in his UFC debut, but I'm curious how much of that was due to Li Jingliang being one of the slowest starters in the game he had the same problem against Camacho in his most recent appearance as well. Against Roberts, I think he'll be in a tougher spot from the start and wouldn't be shocked to see Roberts do enough on the feet to force Nash into a sloppy shot that sees a guillotine or back-take and rear-naked choke finish.
Alexandre Pantoja vs. I'm always a bit concerned when a Brazilian fighter travels overseas for the first time, but Pantoja has such a significant advantage in the grappling here that it probably shouldn't matter. However, if he does struggle with cardio here, Seery is more than capable of putting a pace on him standing. With this potentially being Seery's last fight, its tough to back him, however, as motivations in this situation are tough to decipher.
This will be a pass for me, but I understand why many are backing Pantoja and pushing this line up. Galore Bofando vs. He still doesn't belong in the UFC, and Bofando punts him in the head in short order.
The two-year layoff makes it difficult to bet, but it's rare to get a chance to fade a fighter of Ward's quality under 2-to-1, so I may have to take it. Daniel Teymur vs. Teymur shares many of the same qualities as his brother David, with a decorated striking background. However, he's also shown more aptitude on the ground.
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